... picking Oscar winners

Over on the The Luddite Times I wrote a bit of a silly but earnest post about how you could figure out which movies were NOT going to get nominated based on some analysis of trends in past-Oscar races. The full post is here, but let's just say for the sake of brevity that movies fall into a certain number of categories, and the more of those categories it meets the better chance it has of being nominated.

I also promised my Oscar picks, which I'm going to post here, because I won't be applying as rigorous an analytical model for this part.

One thing to keep in mind: In any secret ballot situation (from the Oscars to a general election) I reject the idea that 'The Academy picked this film because..." or "The voters sent a message of.." because people don't vote that way. Think of any time you've voted: do you remember a meeting saying "Okay, you vote this way, I'll vote this way, and these people will vote this other way and that will indicate that our intentions are thus". It does not happen. So anytime you see something like "The Academy may vote for this movie because they want to...", just say no, run away and tell someone you love. Doubly so when it comes to elections.

And away we go:

Best Picture: This is going to come down to two movies, and what's funny is that a few months ago not many people would have picked either: Slumdog Millionaire and The Reader (what?).

The Curious case of Benjamin Button is more admired than liked, Frost/Nixon has not gained traction, and Milk is considered more of an actor's piece. Most of the press has been about Slumdog Millionaire being the feel-good story and has distanced itself from the others. Plus, when the race started it had a lot of momentum. it had the greatest Oscar "bounce".

So why The Reader? Most critics hated the reader, and I can't think of any other movie that met with a more of a "why is that there?" in recent memory. The Reader is in the mix precisely because of that. It's getting a lot of press, people are talking about it, and there is the chance that people may vote for it based simply on name recognition. A similar thing happened with Crash a few years ago: it looked good on paper, was getting some name recognition, and I'm sure a couple of voters thought that it looked like the sensible, safe choice.

Our pick, though, is Slumdog Millionaire. It started with a lot of momentum, and has gained over the past few weeks, and has dodged every controversy thrown at it.

Best Actor: This comes down to Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke. Each has a compelling story: Penn took the biographical route, Rourke took the comeback route. Both have probably alienated as many people as they have won over with their roles. 

There was actually a similar setup when Penn won: Penn vs Bill Murray vs Johnny Depp. That time the focused method actor won over the hard working curmudgeon. I think the opposite is going to happen this time also. But it will be close. Our pick: Rourke. The movie is close to his life, and his dog just died.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet. Call this the Ricky Gervais award: As he wrote for Winslet in Extras all you have to do is hang around long enough, do a Holocaust film, and then win an Oscar. She's due, and is generally well liked. I think Streep just gets nominated by default (Don't believe me? She was nominated for Music of Heart....MUSIC OF THE HEART, people! Sally Field would have turned that one down in the early 80s.)

Best Supporting Actor:  Heath Leger. I believe he would have won even if he hadn't passed away. This is a lock.

Best Supporting Actress: Oh this is going to be hard. My heart says Viola Davis because she came in with so much momentum, and she has the small role but everything hinges on her performance. My head says Penelope Cruz, partly because of the Exes-of-Tom-Cruise rule. I think I'm going to go with my head here and say Cruz, but I fully admit that if this is the area where you need the most hope for your Oscar pool, then you might want to look elsewhere.

Best Director: Okay. Rant time:

Do you know who an overrated director is? David Fincher. Disagree? You're wrong. Think I'm being harsh? Start your own blog.

I like Fight Club, don't get me wrong. I also enjoyed Zodiac. I also think that there are a lot of fanboys who have just convinced themselves that they like David Fincher without really examining it: it's a knee jerk reaction that they haven't outgrown.  I still like Fine Young Cannibals for the same reason.

The more of his work I see, the more he reminds me of another director. He's Steven Spielberg, but without the heart. I find I more admire the craftsmanship and structure of the movies than the actual content of them, which normally leaves me cold. I feel more connected to people and stories in P.T. Anderson, Stephen Sorderberg, and yes Danny Boyle films than I do in his. He'll win an Oscar one day, I'm certain, but it's not now, and he's going to have get a little heart or he'll just be another Kubrick as opposed to Scorsese. I'm not saying he has to be sentimental, he has to be human.

So, Danny Boyle wins this, just for keeping all the balls in the air while filming Slumdog Millionaire. And also being a great director.

Screenplay awards are always fun, and I think original is going to go to Milk and adapted will go to Slumdog Millionaire. Normally Wall-E would win the original screenplay category, but the uselessness that is the Animated Oscar (I'll rant on that later) has made that point moot.

Now, off to the bookies and office pools with you.