.

... because those were the droids you were looking for.

9.7.09

... thinking about the BJ and Doc Show

Anyone who's hung out with me any amount of time between Spring and Fall know that I loves me my baseball. That and a broad nose are about the only two things I inherited from my father, who was actually scouted by the Yankees back in the day. True story.

Now, anyone who's read my blog this year has also noticed that I haven't written much about the Beloved Blue Jays, and there are two reasons for that. When they started playing really well I didn't want to jinx it, and then when they went into their little tail spin I didn't want to add to their woes. Such is the life of a baseball fan. April may be the cruelest month, but baseball is the cruelest sport and for the same reason: It dares to give you hope.

Two things this week involving The Beloved Jays have indicated that the well of hope has run dry and now it is safe to both praise and bury Cesar.

The first was the release (ie: firing) of reliever BJ Ryan. Ryan came over from the Hated Orioles with a reputation for being the fiercest closer in the majors. Sure, Riviera is the most dominating, but take a look at Robert Victor Ryan: he's huge, he has a thousand mile stare, and he runs from the bullpen to the mound. He stands, starts his wind up, and then tosses a 91 MPH fastball down the middle of the plate with a motion that borders on a balk. Before you know what's happened he's got the ball back and he's started the wind up again. Most pitchers are accused of slowing the game, but with Ryan in it sped up. He'd come in in the 9th, throw 6-9 pitches, and that would be it.

His signing, along with AJ Burnett in the same year, was supposed to signify that the Beloved Blue Jays were going to pitch you into submission. However, there was a little wiff in the air. "Ryan can really only throw the fastball, and he tires out easily. Also, he's never been injured..."

Two seasons ago baseball karma caught up with him. He came back from Tommy John surgery, but he never really came back. His velocity was shot, his control was gone, and even worse his confidence had completely eroded. What used to be a terrifying mountain of a man on the mound looked like a misbegotten moppet. His contract was too large, and his abilities too weakened to be traded and so The Jays and Rogers ate $15 million.

This was a mercy killing, as sad as it is to say, and overdue. Of all the players on a ball team, the closer has to be the most consistent. He has the smallest margin for error. Once he's lost what makes him special he loses his confidence, and once that's gone it's lights out. Sure, the Jays could have just bumping him up and down from the majors to the minors like a Steely Dan song, moving him around the rotation but that would hinder his recovery and disrupt the flow of the team. BJ Ryan had the chance to be one of the greatest closers of his generation. He may yet, but it won't be with the Jays, and I can hardly blame them for that.

But before they released him, they also announced that they were ready to hear offers for Roy Halladay. Now, most athletes in Bippity Town are overpraised by the local media (only in the GBTA would Tie Domi be considered a Hall of Famer), but Doc is the real deal. I put no qualifiers on this: he is the greatest pitcher pitching today. To watch him pitch is to watch a master at work. He focus and control are legendary, you can see it from the rafters. The man just does not blink. And if Ryan worked quickly, Doc went even faster and would pitch the whole 9. I've been to games that have lasted just a little over the 2 hour mark when he pitched. It's very rare to leave the Roger's Centre after a night game and see a little light on the horizon.

So the Beloved Jays are ready to let him go. And how do I feel about that? I'm happy.

I'm not happy to see him go. I'm devastated. This is like when I was a kid and Gary Carter left the Beloved Expos for the Hated Mets. This is pretty much the end of the Jays for this season, a season that started with such promise, and now looks to be another lost cause.

Letting Halladay go, however, is the best move for the team and the man. Here's the deal:
  • He's the only really tradeable commodity that they have. Wells has too large a contract to move, and there's a hint of sulphur in the air about Rios. Lind is too valuable and young to give up, as is Hill. Halladay is a proven commodity, and will immediately improve any team he is on. Plus he still has another year on his contact so a contending team can actually bank on extended services from him. This also means that the Jays could get more in return for him in a trade.
  • If they wait until the deadline, or the off season, his value goes down. They do it now, they are teams that have the money but are nibbling at the heels of the contention that are going to be interested. They wait until the deadline and the pool of interested people dries up.
  • He deserves it. He's the greatest pitcher, and he's going to the hall of fame. Let him win a ring somewhere, but he'll always have that first Cy Young with the Jays
  • He's loyal. This is the weirdest reason. He likes Toronto, likes the organization, and has put up with leaner times than now. Because of that he also knows that any promise of "re-sign with us and we'll build a team around you" can't be counted on. They've had enough time to do that and haven't, and he'll walk leaving the Jays with nothing to show. In essence the team is saying "Look, we want to keep you, but we also know we can't give you the team you need. Can we see about sending you there?" (He has a no-trade clause). Yes, it reeks of "It's not you, it's me," but in this case it is the truth.
  • Also, the last two seasons he has had injuries. These have been because of him pushing himself harder and harder because he couldn't count on the bullpen. So trading him may also add a couple of seasons to his career.
There's another thing here: 2010 and 2011. Most sports executives are dreading those years. Why? Because it takes a couple of years for any economic hardship to hit the professional sports leagues. So after this year of declining revenues, there's going to be less joy to go around. There is an upside to this for some of the smaller markets (though I'm not an Economicalamalist) in that there might be a lot of bargains on the free agent market at that time. It might be possible in a couple of years to buy Roy back, if only because the Jays have respected him and not burnt any bridges. (Yes, it's a long shot)

Now, where does he go? This is fun. Most of the teams mentioned have been the usual suspects (The Hated Yankees, The Hated Red Sox, The Hated Phillies, and The Hated Angels). I doubt the Beloved Jays would trade him in their own division unless they got a lot in return (a shortstop, pitcher, and a good prospect at either position), so it looks like either the AL West or the NL.

A lot of people bring up The Hated Dodgers. I find this funny for two reasons. The first is that Doc has never been comfortable batting. I won't get into that right here, that's another rant. The other is best summed up in three words: Manny Being Manny. Manny is a showboat, a character, and plays it up. Doc is all focus. Now, he's dealt with egos before, but he's never had to deal with a large showboating personality. I think moving to Chavez Ravine would cause for a very caustic clubhouse between Manny Being Manny and the laser-like focus of Doc. The first time MBM came up to horse around in front of Doc in the dugout during a game would be his last.

So, after all of this it looks like this era, the Doc era, of the Beloved Jays is coming to a close. Depending on what they get for him, it could be the start of a whole new team as they already have some solid prospects. Conversely it could be the start of another rebuilding process, and with The Hated Orioles ready to make their move it means that the hardest division in baseball is only going to get harder.

But that doesn't matter. I'll still be watching every year, no matter who is in the rotation. Why? Because baseball gives you hope. Baseball is long. Baseball is having to give every man the same chance as the man before, and it's not over until the game says it is. The book says we might be done with baseball, but baseball ain't done with us.

But mostly, I'll be watching because baseball is cruel.

It gives you hope.

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